Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and by National Research Council

By National Research Council

This record is the precis of a workshop performed via the nationwide examine Council in an effort to study from either forecast makers and forecast clients approximately advancements that may be made in knowing the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers tested: the heritage and issues of types of call for and provide for scientists and engineers; ambitions and techniques to forecasting versions; margins of adjustment which have been overlooked in versions, particularly substitution and caliber; the presentation of uncertainty; and no matter if those forecasts of offer and insist are helpful, given all their shortcomings. the point of interest of the document used to be to supply counsel to the NSF and to students during this zone on how versions and the forecasts derived from them may be superior, and what position NSF should still play of their development. additionally, the document tested problems with reporting forecasts to policymakers.

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The EIA computes the mean squared errors for these different forecasts and uses the information to fine-tune its models. However, for long-term forecasts they do not publish the error terms. Because the accuracy of the forecasts would not be very good, long-term forecasts should not be used to produce point estimates. Long-term forecasting models are useful for other purposes. The examples that follow demonstrate some of these uses. Scenario analyses are useful in illustrating the variability and uncertainty of long-term forecasts.

The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 makes additional assumptions about competitive pricing and restructuring, including: • Lower operation and maintenance costs. • Lower capital costs and improved efficiency for coaland gas-fired plants. • Lower general and administrative costs. • Early retirement of high-cost nuclear plants. • Capital recovery period will be reduced from 30 to 20 years. • California, New York, and New England will begin competitive pricing in 1998 with stranded cost recovery phased out by 2008.

As Johnson points out, it is beyond the capacity of a long-term market forecasting model to 1 In particular, good demographic data and forecasts exist, as well as long time series on levels, numbers, and fields of degrees. S. economy. These models typically do not include wages and are rarely disaggregated by field. D. scientists and engineers in the early 1990s and what actually happened. anticipate all the changes that can affect demand and supply. However, if regularly updated models had been available that took into account recent events and market adjustment mechanisms, and communicated the true limits of forecast accuracy, then forecast errors would have been smaller and less surprising.

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