Defense Planning in a Decade of Change: Lessons from the by Eric Larson, David Orletsky, Kristin Leuschner

By Eric Larson, David Orletsky, Kristin Leuschner

All the 3 safety studies of the decade fell in need of absolutely apprehending the calls for of the rising chance setting, and the budgets that might be wanted and afforded, leading to a growing to be imbalance among procedure, forces, and assets over the last decade.

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Additional info for Defense Planning in a Decade of Change: Lessons from the Base Force, Bottom-Up Review, and Quadrennial Defense Review

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3–4. 13See Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1992 National Military Strategy, p. 7. , August 1991, p. 25. 15Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1992 National Military Strategy, p. 7. 17 The Spectrum of Threat. 18 In the spectrum-of-threat construct, the probability of occurrence and level of violence are inversely related, while the consequence of failure is positively related to the level of violence. The result is that humanitarian and disaster relief operations and other peacetime operations are more probable but generally less consequential than lesser regional conflicts (LRCs); high-intensity conventional major regional conflicts (MRCs) are less likely but more consequential than LRCs; and MRCs are more probable but far less consequential than global thermonuclear war.

Although it was not until the October 1990 budget summit and the final negotiations on the Budget Enforcement Act that discretionary defense spending caps were finalized, Base Force policymakers anticipated reduced annual defense budgets. These reductions accelerated with each succeeding year’s budget, however, subsequently forcing policymakers to make deeper cuts in modernization accounts than had originally been anticipated. As early as January 1989, OMB Director Darman had begun pressing for substantial reductions to defense spending.

Additionally, the task force predicted that the DoD faced a procurement “bow wave” of approximately $5 billion a year by the early 2000s that would in all likelihood make the planned theater air and Navy shipbuilding programs unaffordable after FY 1999.

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