By Patricia Grossi, Howard Kunreuther
Catastrophe Modeling: a brand new method of coping with hazard is the 1st publication that systematically analyzes how disaster versions can be utilized for assessing and handling hazards of maximum occasions. It specializes in ordinary catastrophe chance, but in addition discusses the administration of terrorism chance. a distinct function of this ebook is the involvement of 3 top disaster modeling agencies, AIR around the world, EQECAT, and danger administration strategies, who learn the function of disaster modeling in cost surroundings, portfolio administration and danger financing.
Using information from 3 version towns (Oakland, CA, lengthy seashore, CA and Miami/Dade County, FLA), specialists from the Wharton tuition of the college of Pennsylvania study the function of disaster modeling to enhance danger administration concepts for decreasing and spreading the losses from destiny mess ups. Given the uncertainties linked to terrorism the booklet issues out the possibilities for using disaster versions to set assurance premiums and to check public-private partnerships for supplying monetary suggestions within the occasion of a terrorist assault.
"This publication fills a severe want in atmosphere forth the position of recent probability research in handling disaster possibility. there is not any similar reference paintings for this crucial topic zone. The ebook is definitely written and good geared up. It includes contributions from a number of the so much unique specialists within the fields of chance research and hazard administration. It moves an exceptional stability among the technical elements of the topic and the sensible facets of determination making."
"This ebook is strongly prompt for many who needs to make judgements concerning the administration of affects of disaster dangers together with these in either the private and non-private sector."
Wilfred D. Iwan
Professor of utilized Mechanics, Emeritus
Director, Earthquake Engineering learn Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
"The authors have captured the essence of disaster modeling: its worth, its software and its boundaries. each practitioner within the disaster danger box may still learn this book."
Franklin W. Nutter, President
Reinsurance organization of America
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Extra info for Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Risk
At the governmental level, catastrophe modeling presents both a positive opportunity and a political dilemma for regulators and emergency management agencies. As an example of a positive use of the models, consider the use of HAZUS to measure the impact of an earthquake. One model output option is 28 to create a GIS map of the potential loss. 3 earthquake. The largest concentration of loss, measured by the number of individuals seeking shelter following the disaster, is near the scenario’s epicenter.
Feinstein Press Release (March 2001). html. Grossi, P. and Kunreuther, H. (2000). “Public Policy,” Chapter 2 in Financial Management of Earthquake Risk, Oakland, CA: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. Insurance Information Institute (2001). org/media/hottopics/insurance/xxx/> Interagency Flood Plain Management Review Committee (1994). C: USGPO. Lecomte, E. and Gahagan, K. (1998). “Hurricane Insurance Protection in Florida,” Chapter 5 in Kunreuther, H. and Roth, R. Paying the Price: The Status and Role of Insurance Against Natural Disasters in the United States.
4. Catastrophe model output: Right-hand tail of exceedance probability curve predicted by EQECAT for all possible events. 4 Derivation and Use of an Exceedance Probability Curve Given the importance of how insurers use catastrophe modeling and the EP curve to manage risk, it is essential to understand how the EP curve can be created from the loss output. 1 Generating an Exceedance Probability Curve For the purposes of illustration, some simplifying assumptions are made to generate an EP curve. Suppose there is a set of natural disaster 30 events, which could damage a portfolio of structures.